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πŸ”‹ HS Code Battery / EV Cycle Dashboard (YoY + Absolute)

⚠️ 핡심 톡찰: YoY %와 μ ˆλŒ€ μˆ˜μ€€ 비ꡐ ν•„μˆ˜. "YoY 0% 톡과 β‰  μ§„μ§œ peak 회볡"
8507.60 Battery: YoY +0.4% but μ ˆλŒ€ μˆ˜μ€€ peak의 60% (upside +67%) βœ…
8703.40 Hybrid: YoY +50% AND μ ˆλŒ€ μˆ˜μ€€ 100% of peak (이미 μ‹ κ³ κ°€) ⚠️
8703.80 Pure EV: μ ˆλŒ€ 58% of peak but import +706% (쀑ꡭ 침투)

1. HS 8507.60 Li-ion Battery β€” μ§„μ§œ cycle bottom (+67% upside)

Peak 6M cum$4,049M2023-Q4 cycle peak
Trough 6M cum$936M이전 cycle 저점
Current$2,428M60% of peak / +159% from trough
Upside to peak+67%real recovery κ°€λŠ₯
YoY signal: 6M cum YoY +0.4% (turning) / 3M-sm +16.9% / λ‹¨λ°œ 2026-03 raw +47.2%
Absolute signal: $2,428M (60% of peak). Peak ($4,049M)κΉŒμ§€ +67% μΆ”κ°€ 회볡 μ—¬λ ₯
해석: μ§„μ§œ cycle bottom 톡과 (13λ…„ λ§Œμ— 5번째), 더 갈 κ³³ 있음 (peak 재돌파 κ°€λŠ₯)
Sub-code: ESS 50% (메인), 기타 23%, μ „κΈ°μ°¨ 19% β€” ESS μ‹œμž₯이 driver
6M cum YoY bucket247540 μ—μ½”ν”„λ‘œλΉ„μ—  fwd 6M003670 ν¬μŠ€μ½”ν“¨μ²˜μ—  fwd 6M066970 μ—˜μ•€μ—ν”„ fwd 6M
-30~-10%+4.1%-42.8%+11.4%
-10~0% (turning)+67.5% (win 90%)+23.9%+53.2% (win 75%)
0~30% (recovery)+19.6%+12.7%+15.9%
30~60% (acceleration)+128.9% (win 100%)+55.8% (win 80%)+42.9% (win 85%)

2. HS 8703.40 Hybrid β€” 이미 historical peak (μœ„ν—˜)

Peak 6M cum$8,988M2026-03 μ‹ κ³ κ°€
Trough 6M cum$1,054M
Current$8,988M100% of peak! ⚠️
Upside to peak0%더 갈 κ³³ μ—†μŒ (reversal risk)
⚠️ 핡심 risk: Hybrid export μ ˆλŒ€ μˆ˜μ€€μ΄ historical peak 도달.
YoY +50%λŠ” κ°•ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ absolute level이 천μž₯ β†’ μΆ”κ°€ +50% 더 κ°€λ €λ©΄ κΈ€λ‘œλ²Œ Hybrid μ‹œμž₯ μžμ²΄κ°€ ν™•μž₯ ν•„μš”
ν˜„λŒ€μ°¨ +98% 6M = 이미 peak Hybrid cycle 반영 β†’ μΆ”κ°€ upside μ œν•œμ 
Trump IRA 2026-Q4 변동 μ‹œ 직접 hit. Catch-up zone μ’…λͺ© (ν˜„λŒ€μœ„μ•„/HL Mando)도 이미 peak phase κ°€κΉŒμ›€

3. HS 8703.80 Pure EV β€” Mixed (수좜 회볡 + 쀑ꡭ 침투)

Peak 6M cum (export)$7,332M
Current export$4,279M58% of peak
Upside to peak+71%peak 재돌파 μ—¬λ ₯
Import YoY+706%쀑ꡭ EV 침투 가속
ν•œκ΅­ EV export -42% below peak, 회볡 μ—¬λ ₯ 있음
But Import 폭증 (쀑ꡭ BYD/Tesla ν•œκ΅­ λ‚΄μˆ˜ 침투) β†’ ν•œκ΅­ OEM κΈ€λ‘œλ²Œ 수좜 의쑴 thesis κ°•ν™”

4. 톡합 진단 (YoY + Absolute μ’…ν•©)

HS CodeYoY signalAbsolute (% of peak)Real upsideBest targetsStatus
8507.60 Battery+0.4% turning60% of peak+67%μ—μ½”ν”„λ‘œλΉ„μ— , TCC Steel, SK IET🟒 Real bottom + upside
8703.40 Hybrid+50%100% of peak0%ν˜„λŒ€μœ„μ•„, HL Mando (lag plays)⚠️ Peak risk
8703.80 Pure EV+5%58% of peak+71%(import 침투 risk)🟑 Mixed

5. Action implications (Absolute view 반영)

Battery (8507.60) β†’ Buy: real recovery μ‹œμž‘, peak +67% upside λ‚¨μŒ, μ—μ½”ν”„λ‘œλΉ„μ— /TCC/SK IET μ§„μž… 적기

Hybrid (8703.40) β†’ CAUTION: 이미 peak 도달, ν˜„λŒ€μ°¨ cluster +98%도 이미 peak phase. Catch-up (ν˜„λŒ€μœ„μ•„ +69% backtest) μ§„μž…μ€ short hold만, 6M peak reversal risk 큼

Pure EV (8703.80) β†’ Mixed: ν•œκ΅­ export 회볡 μ—¬λ ₯ μžˆμ§€λ§Œ 쀑ꡭ EV 침투둜 λ‚΄μˆ˜ share 손싀. κΈ€λ‘œλ²Œ 수좜 (Hybrid)에 의쑴