🔬 Inspection Equipment Signal

🔬 Inspection Equipment Signal — 3M Rising Rule

Factor: HS 9030901000 (한국 관세청 분류 "HS 9030.82 = 반도체 웨이퍼/소자 검사장비"의 부분품) import KG YoY (SMA-3M)
매매 룰: yoy_kg[t] > yoy_kg[t-3] (3개월 전보다 KG YoY 높으면 LONG, 아니면 CASH)
왜 KG (수량)?: 검사장비는 모델/tier에 따라 USD 단가 천차만별. 수량(kg)이 진짜 fab 증설 신호 (USD YoY ρ=+0.59, KG YoY ρ=+0.76).
왜 IMPORT?: 한국 fab(SK Hynix 등)이 해외 장비 부품 수입 = 직접 capex 신호. Gold(7108131010)는 export였음 — direction은 코드별로 다름.
SK Hynix와 관계: ρ=+0.76 @ lag 0M (coincident). Gold(+2M lead)와 달리 동행. → 알파보다 risk reduction 용도.

📊 백테스트 결과 (2014-02 ~ 2026-03, 12.2년)

20.3x

전략 NAV

20.8x

Buy & Hold NAV

-0.3%p

Alpha (CAGR vs BH)

45%

MDD 개선 (vs BH)

28.1%

전략 CAGR

28.3%

BH CAGR

-26%

전략 MDD

-47%

BH MDD

50%

투자 시간 비중

매매 횟수

9/15

승률

27.9%

평균 수익률/거래

현재 시점: 2026-03

🟢 LONG

yoy_kg: +143.3% | 3M 전: +132.8% | 차이: +10.5pp

신호 ON: yoy_kg가 3개월 전보다 높음 (검사장비 import 가속)

SK Hynix 종가: 807,000 KRW | 현재 import: $129.9M, 95,041 kg

📈 NAV 비교 — 전략 vs Buy & Hold

📈 Factor (yoy_kg vs yoy_usd) + Signal Bands

파란선 = yoy_kg (수량, 신호용). 회색선 = yoy_usd (가격 효과). 점선 = yoy_kg 3M 전. 녹색 음영 = LONG ON.

📋 매매 이력 (n=15)

at 0x0000015F61AE0180>

진입

SK 매수가

yoy@매수

청산

SK 매도가

yoy@매도

보유

수익률

📋 최근 30개월 — Signal Detail

월	imp ($M)	imp (kg)	yoy_kg	yoy_kg[-3]	차이	Rising?	SK 종가	Position
2023-10	58.4	29,076	+17.9%	-14.4%	+32.3pp	✅	116,300	🟢 LONG
2023-11	40.3	20,360	+8.8%	-20.7%	+29.6pp	✅	133,900	🟢 LONG
2023-12	51.2	28,272	+2.9%	+4.3%	-1.4pp	❌	141,500	🟢 LONG
2024-01	68.6	34,743	+36.1%	+17.9%	+18.2pp	✅	134,700	🔴 CASH
2024-02	52.8	31,811	+66.0%	+8.8%	+57.1pp	✅	156,200	🟢 LONG
2024-03	65.3	28,529	+73.6%	+2.9%	+70.7pp	✅	183,000	🟢 LONG
2024-04	63.2	30,017	+36.9%	+36.1%	+0.8pp	✅	174,200	🟢 LONG
2024-05	58.6	37,637	+22.4%	+66.0%	-43.6pp	❌	189,200	🟢 LONG
2024-06	65.2	35,521	+32.8%	+73.6%	-40.8pp	❌	236,500	🔴 CASH
2024-07	81.0	40,668	+49.0%	+36.9%	+12.1pp	✅	194,600	🔴 CASH
2024-08	59.9	31,434	+47.3%	+22.4%	+24.9pp	✅	173,700	🟢 LONG
2024-09	58.0	36,288	+42.5%	+32.8%	+9.7pp	✅	174,600	🟢 LONG
2024-10	54.8	44,867	+40.6%	+49.0%	-8.4pp	❌	186,300	🟢 LONG
2024-11	53.4	40,160	+68.3%	+47.3%	+20.9pp	✅	159,900	🔴 CASH
2024-12	61.6	37,826	+61.8%	+42.5%	+19.3pp	✅	173,900	🟢 LONG
2025-01	49.4	29,172	+38.3%	+40.6%	-2.3pp	❌	199,200	🟢 LONG
2025-02	59.6	30,188	+4.2%	+68.3%	-64.0pp	❌	190,200	🔴 CASH
2025-03	70.8	32,821	-2.0%	+61.8%	-63.8pp	❌	190,700	🔴 CASH
2025-04	75.7	34,027	+7.8%	+38.3%	-30.6pp	❌	177,500	🔴 CASH
2025-05	79.6	37,999	+9.8%	+4.2%	+5.6pp	✅	204,500	🔴 CASH
2025-06	123.2	72,872	+39.8%	-2.0%	+41.9pp	✅	292,000	🟢 LONG
2025-07	87.2	37,028	+32.4%	+7.8%	+24.6pp	✅	273,500	🟢 LONG
2025-08	67.9	34,099	+34.9%	+9.8%	+25.1pp	✅	269,000	🟢 LONG
2025-09	101.8	65,900	+27.0%	+39.8%	-12.8pp	❌	347,500	🟢 LONG
2025-10	104.6	76,941	+53.9%	+32.4%	+21.5pp	✅	559,000	🔴 CASH
2025-11	94.6	96,377	+97.7%	+34.9%	+62.8pp	✅	530,000	🟢 LONG
2025-12	120.1	108,478	+132.8%	+27.0%	+105.7pp	✅	651,000	🟢 LONG
2026-01	103.8	88,200	+175.6%	+53.9%	+121.7pp	✅	909,000	🟢 LONG
2026-02	79.0	42,351	+142.4%	+97.7%	+44.7pp	✅	1,061,000	🟢 LONG
2026-03	129.9	95,041	+143.3%	+132.8%	+10.5pp	✅	807,000	🟢 LONG

월

imp ($M)

imp (kg)

yoy_kg

yoy_kg[-3]

차이

Rising?

SK 종가

Position

2023-10

58.4

29,076

+17.9%

-14.4%

+32.3pp

✅

116,300

🟢 LONG

2023-11

40.3

20,360

+8.8%

-20.7%

+29.6pp

✅

133,900

🟢 LONG

2023-12

51.2

28,272

+2.9%

+4.3%

-1.4pp

❌

141,500

🟢 LONG

2024-01

68.6

34,743

+36.1%

+17.9%

+18.2pp

✅

134,700

🔴 CASH

2024-02

52.8

31,811

+66.0%

+8.8%

+57.1pp

✅

156,200

🟢 LONG

2024-03

65.3

28,529

+73.6%

+2.9%

+70.7pp

✅

183,000

🟢 LONG

2024-04

63.2

30,017

+36.9%

+36.1%

+0.8pp

✅

174,200

🟢 LONG

2024-05

58.6

37,637

+22.4%

+66.0%

-43.6pp

❌

189,200

🟢 LONG

2024-06

65.2

35,521

+32.8%

+73.6%

-40.8pp

❌

236,500

🔴 CASH

2024-07

81.0

40,668

+49.0%

+36.9%

+12.1pp

✅

194,600

🔴 CASH

2024-08

59.9

31,434

+47.3%

+22.4%

+24.9pp

✅

173,700

🟢 LONG

2024-09

58.0

36,288

+42.5%

+32.8%

+9.7pp

✅

174,600

🟢 LONG

2024-10

54.8

44,867

+40.6%

+49.0%

-8.4pp

❌

186,300

🟢 LONG

2024-11

53.4

40,160

+68.3%

+47.3%

+20.9pp

✅

159,900

🔴 CASH

2024-12

61.6

37,826

+61.8%

+42.5%

+19.3pp

✅

173,900

🟢 LONG

2025-01

49.4

29,172

+38.3%

+40.6%

-2.3pp

❌

199,200

🟢 LONG

2025-02

59.6

30,188

+4.2%

+68.3%

-64.0pp

❌

190,200

🔴 CASH

2025-03

70.8

32,821

-2.0%

+61.8%

-63.8pp

❌

190,700

🔴 CASH

2025-04

75.7

34,027

+7.8%

+38.3%

-30.6pp

❌

177,500

🔴 CASH

2025-05

79.6

37,999

+9.8%

+4.2%

+5.6pp

✅

204,500

🔴 CASH

2025-06

123.2

72,872

+39.8%

-2.0%

+41.9pp

✅

292,000

🟢 LONG

2025-07

87.2

37,028

+32.4%

+7.8%

+24.6pp

✅

273,500

🟢 LONG

2025-08

67.9

34,099

+34.9%

+9.8%

+25.1pp

✅

269,000

🟢 LONG

2025-09

101.8

65,900

+27.0%

+39.8%

-12.8pp

❌

347,500

🟢 LONG

2025-10

104.6

76,941

+53.9%

+32.4%

+21.5pp

✅

559,000

🔴 CASH

2025-11

94.6

96,377

+97.7%

+34.9%

+62.8pp

✅

530,000

🟢 LONG

2025-12

120.1

108,478

+132.8%

+27.0%

+105.7pp

✅

651,000

🟢 LONG

2026-01

103.8

88,200

+175.6%

+53.9%

+121.7pp

✅

909,000

🟢 LONG

2026-02

79.0

42,351

+142.4%

+97.7%

+44.7pp

✅

1,061,000

🟢 LONG

2026-03

129.9

95,041

+143.3%

+132.8%

+10.5pp

✅

807,000

🟢 LONG

📌 매매 룰 요약:

Entry (LONG): 매월 말 yoy_kg 확인 → 3개월 전보다 높으면 다음 달 SK Hynix 매수/유지
Exit (CASH): yoy_kg가 3개월 전보다 낮으면 다음 달 청산 → cash 보유
거래 빈도: 15회 / 12.2년 = 연 1.2회

비교 — Gold (7108131010) vs 검사장비 (9030901000):

	Gold (USD YoY)	검사장비 (KG YoY)
ρ vs SK	+0.72	+0.76
Lead time	+2M (LEAD)	0M (COIN)
전략 NAV	35.82x	20.30x
전략 CAGR	34.2%	28.1%
전략 MDD	-36%	-26%
용도	알파 generator (timing)	risk reducer (drawdown 보호)

운용 제안: Gold + 검사장비 둘 다 ON일 때만 매수 → 더 정확한 confirmation. 둘 중 하나만 ON이면 부분 비중.

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