📦 Nepes (033640) Signal — Flash Memory Q4 + Spread

매매 룰 (Rule F4 — Q4 primary):

ENTRY (BUY): flash_yoy < 0 AND ne_6m < 0 HOLD: 12개월 (Flash가 +12M LEADING factor → hold matched) EXIT: 12M 후 자동 청산

인과: NAND Flash imp YoY 저점 (cycle trough) → 12개월 후 Nepes 패키징 매출 회복. NAND fab cycle (6M) + outsourcing → OSAT (1-2M) + 매출인식 (1-2M) ≈ +12M lead time.

현재: 2026-05 | Nepes 종가: 32,850 KRW

🟢 LONG (HOLD)

F (6M): ⚪ CASH F4 (12M): 🟢 LONG B (3-fac): ⚪ CASH F3 (3-fac top): ⚪ CASH

Flash YoY (2026-03): +156.9% | Nepes 6M return: +90.3%

📊 Q4 Strategy 백테스트 (12-year)

F4: Flash 12M hold🥇 BEST NAV

NAV / BH15.22x / 3.76x

α/yr+13.80%p

MDD / BH MDD-57% / -85%

Trades / Win4 / 75%

Avg ret+98.3%

Time in mkt67%

B: 3-fac combo 6M🥈 stability

NAV / BH9.30x / 3.76x

α/yr+8.74%p

MDD / BH MDD-63% / -85%

Trades / Win6 / 83%

Avg ret+44.8%

Time in mkt39%

F3: 3-fac top 6M🥉 lowest MDD

NAV / BH5.39x / 3.76x

α/yr+3.39%p

MDD / BH MDD-26% / -85%

Trades / Win6 / 83%

Avg ret+30.7%

Time in mkt32%

F: Flash 6M

NAV / BH4.54x / 3.76x

α/yr+1.76%p

MDD / BH MDD-61% / -85%

Trades / Win6 / 83%

Avg ret+32.9%

Time in mkt44%

📈 Nepes 주가 + Flash YoY + F4 LONG region

🥇 F4: Flash 12M (5 trades)

🥈 B: 3-fac combo (6 trades)

🥉 F3: 3-fac top (6 trades)

F: Flash 6M (6 trades)

Rule F4: flash_yoy < 0 AND Nepes 6M < 0 → BUY, hold 12M
NAV 15.22x | α +13.80%p/yr | MDD -57% | Win 75% | Avg +98.3%/trade

#	Entry	Exit	Entry Px	Exit Px	Return	Flash YoY	Nepes 6M	Win
1	2015-10	2017-05	6,680	10,800	+61.7%	-17.9%	-23.6%	✅
2	2017-11	2018-11	9,800	9,970	+1.7%	+22.9%	-7.2%	✅
3	2019-01	2021-05	12,050	37,100	+207.9%	-21.1%	-37.7%	✅
4	2022-11	2024-03	19,250	16,970	-11.8%	+11.3%	-40.3%	❌
5	2024-08	2026-05 (OPEN)	9,900	32,850	+231.8%	-50.6%	-31.5%	✅

Rule B: ≥2 of [memimp, memexp, emc] YoY < 0 AND Nepes 6M < 0 → BUY, hold 6M
NAV 9.30x | α +8.74%p/yr | MDD -63% | Win 83% | Sub-period 3/4 stable

#	Entry	Exit	Entry Px	Exit Px	Return	Flash YoY	Nepes 6M	Win
1	2016-01	2016-11	5,560	7,180	+29.1%	-64.2%	-16.5%	✅
2	2016-12	2017-06	8,280	11,150	+34.7%	+49.1%	+2.0%	✅
3	2019-01	2019-10	12,050	27,850	+131.1%	-21.1%	-37.7%	✅
4	2020-01	2020-08	23,700	29,250	+23.4%	-4.4%	-25.1%	✅
5	2023-11	2024-09	16,900	8,870	-47.5%	+10.8%	-21.2%	❌
6	2024-10	2025-12	7,870	15,600	+98.2%	-23.3%	-47.7%	✅

Rule F3: flash + diode + machinery (all YoY < 0) AND Nepes 6M < 0 → BUY, hold 6M
NAV 5.39x | α +3.39%p/yr | MDD -26% (BH -85%, 3x improvement) | Win 83%

#	Entry	Exit	Entry Px	Exit Px	Return	Flash YoY	Nepes 6M	Win
1	2016-05	2016-11	7,040	7,180	+2.0%	-64.4%	+14.4%	✅
2	2017-11	2018-05	9,800	10,150	+3.6%	+22.9%	-7.2%	✅
3	2019-04	2019-10	20,600	27,850	+35.2%	-47.5%	+47.9%	✅
4	2020-02	2020-11	29,200	32,100	+9.9%	+5.5%	-22.0%	✅
5	2023-02	2023-09	17,660	16,850	-4.6%	-10.8%	-14.6%	❌
6	2024-12	2025-12	6,550	15,600	+138.2%	-44.9%	-61.4%	✅

Rule F: flash_yoy < 0 AND Nepes 6M < 0 → BUY, hold 6M
NAV 4.54x | α +1.76%p/yr | MDD -61% | Win 83% | Walk-forward 6/6 = 100%

#	Entry	Exit	Entry Px	Exit Px	Return	Flash YoY	Nepes 6M	Win
1	2015-10	2016-11	6,680	7,180	+7.5%	-17.9%	-23.6%	✅
2	2017-11	2018-05	9,800	10,150	+3.6%	+22.9%	-7.2%	✅
3	2019-01	2019-10	12,050	27,850	+131.1%	-21.1%	-37.7%	✅
4	2020-02	2020-11	29,200	32,100	+9.9%	+5.5%	-22.0%	✅
5	2022-11	2023-09	19,250	16,850	-12.5%	+11.3%	-40.3%	❌
6	2024-08	2025-12	9,900	15,600	+57.6%	-50.6%	-31.5%	✅

매매 룰 (Spread mean reversion):

spread = nepes_3m_return - nand_3m_change ENTRY (BUY): spread < 0 (Nepes underperformed NAND → mean revert UP) EXIT : spread >= 0 (continuous) or after 3M hold (S3 variant)

인과: Nepes(OSAT)는 NAND 사이클의 downstream. Nepes 3M return이 NAND 3M change 보다 약하면 = Nepes가 사이클 대비 저평가 → 6-12M 후 catch-up 가능.
NAND series: HS 8542321030 (Flash Memory)의 imp 또는 exp 3M 변화율

현재: 2026-05 | Nepes 종가: 32,850 KRW

🟢 LONG (Spread)

S (continuous, NAND imp): ⚪ CASH S3 (3M hold, NAND exp): 🟢 LONG

Nepes 3M ret: +75.4% | Spread (NAND imp, 2026-04): -6.1% | Spread (NAND exp, 2026-04): -92.4%

📊 Spread Strategy 백테스트 (12-year)

S: Continuous (NAND imp, no fixed hold)📐 simple

NAV / BH4.81x / 3.76x

α/yr+2.32%p

MDD / BH MDD-53% / -85%

Trades / Win27 / 41%

Avg ret+1.5%

Time in mkt50%

S3: Trigger 3M hold (NAND exp)🥇 best NAV

NAV / BH6.50x / 3.76x

α/yr+5.20%p

MDD / BH MDD-81% / -85%

Trades / Win14 / 57%

Avg ret+12.6%

Time in mkt78%

📈 Nepes 3M return vs NAND imp/exp 3M change

🥇 S3: 3M hold (NAND exp) (15 trades)

S: Continuous (NAND imp) (27 trades)

Rule S3: spread (= ne_3m - nand_exp_3m) < 0 → BUY, hold 3M minimum
NAV 6.50x vs BH 3.76x | α +5.20%p/yr | MDD -81% | Win 57% | Sub-period 4/4 positive ✅
⚠️ OOS 약함: 2014-2020 NAV 7.55x → 2021-2026 NAV 0.44x (AI 사이클이 spread 무력화). Walk-forward 7/10 = 70%.

#	Entry	Exit	Entry Px	Exit Px	Return	Nepes 3M	NAND exp 3M	Spread	Win
1	2014-08	2015-04	6,900	8,510	+23.3%	-30.5%	+15.2%	-45.7%	✅
2	2015-07	2016-01	6,630	5,560	-16.1%	-24.6%	+8.6%	-33.2%	❌
3	2016-02	2016-12	6,170	8,280	+34.2%	-16.8%	+10.5%	-27.2%	✅
4	2017-01	2017-05	10,200	10,800	+5.9%	+4.5%	+6.1%	-1.6%	✅
5	2017-06	2018-03	11,150	8,450	-24.2%	+9.8%	+2.6%	+7.1%	❌
6	2018-04	2018-10	8,700	8,910	+2.4%	-10.6%	+43.7%	-54.2%	✅
7	2018-11	2019-04	9,970	20,600	+106.6%	-24.5%	+24.7%	-49.2%	✅
8	2019-12	2020-08	24,050	29,250	+21.6%	-30.2%	-7.6%	-22.6%	✅
9	2020-10	2021-03	28,500	37,750	+32.5%	+9.4%	+21.1%	-11.7%	✅
10	2021-06	2023-02	42,400	17,660	-58.3%	-6.1%	+27.8%	-33.9%	❌
11	2023-04	2023-08	20,100	17,700	-11.9%	+51.8%	+83.9%	-32.1%	❌
12	2023-10	2024-08	15,840	9,900	-37.5%	-14.4%	+51.5%	-65.9%	❌
13	2024-09	2025-05	8,870	7,860	-11.4%	-42.4%	-43.4%	+1.0%	❌
14	2025-06	2025-10	11,560	17,390	+50.4%	+4.9%	+90.8%	-85.9%	✅
15	2026-01	2026-05 (OPEN)	19,150	32,850	+71.5%	+3.0%	+80.5%	-77.5%	✅

Rule S: spread (= ne_3m - nand_imp_3m) < 0 → BUY (continuous, no fixed hold)
NAV 4.81x vs BH 3.76x | α +2.32%p/yr | MDD -53% | Win 41% | Avg +1.5%/trade
거래 27회로 churn 많음 (avg 음수) — 단순 monthly state 룰

#	Entry	Exit	Entry Px	Exit Px	Return	Nepes 3M	NAND imp 3M	Spread	Win
1	2015-08	2015-10	6,060	6,680	+10.2%	-22.1%	+33.9%	-56.0%	✅
2	2015-12	2016-01	5,980	5,560	-7.0%	+1.3%	+16.3%	-14.9%	❌
3	2016-04	2016-05	7,640	7,040	-7.9%	+2.7%	+6.4%	-3.8%	❌
4	2016-08	2016-11	7,550	7,180	-4.9%	+10.5%	+322.0%	-311.5%	❌
5	2017-01	2017-02	10,200	9,840	-3.5%	+4.5%	+12.1%	-7.5%	❌
6	2017-08	2018-02	9,600	9,680	+0.8%	+5.2%	+12.3%	-7.1%	✅
7	2018-03	2018-05	8,450	10,150	+20.1%	-1.2%	+1.3%	-2.5%	✅
8	2018-09	2019-02	10,650	12,350	+16.0%	+23.2%	+116.2%	-93.0%	✅
9	2019-06	2019-09	32,100	29,700	-7.5%	+108.1%	+114.3%	-6.2%	❌
10	2019-12	2020-01	24,050	23,700	-1.5%	-30.2%	-29.7%	-0.5%	❌
11	2020-02	2020-03	29,200	28,700	-1.7%	-14.9%	-8.1%	-6.8%	❌
12	2020-06	2020-08	28,700	29,250	+1.9%	+11.5%	+50.0%	-38.6%	✅
13	2020-09	2020-12	31,400	42,500	+35.4%	-10.1%	+29.2%	-39.4%	✅
14	2021-05	2021-07	37,100	38,000	+2.4%	-8.5%	+7.0%	-15.5%	✅
15	2021-08	2021-09	35,700	32,450	-9.1%	-5.0%	+29.4%	-34.4%	❌
16	2021-10	2021-11	35,050	31,350	-10.6%	-23.5%	+32.5%	-56.0%	❌
17	2021-12	2022-03	38,350	30,000	-21.8%	-12.2%	+66.6%	-78.8%	❌
18	2022-04	2022-05	30,550	29,100	-4.7%	-21.8%	-15.7%	-6.1%	❌
19	2022-06	2022-09	19,500	16,200	-16.9%	+2.5%	+9.6%	-7.1%	❌
20	2022-11	2023-04	19,250	20,100	+4.4%	-9.9%	+32.5%	-42.4%	✅
21	2023-06	2023-09	19,680	16,850	-14.4%	+13.3%	+71.3%	-58.0%	❌
22	2023-11	2024-01	16,900	18,400	+8.9%	-29.3%	+7.1%	-36.4%	✅
23	2024-03	2024-06	16,970	15,500	-8.7%	+16.9%	+149.1%	-132.1%	❌
24	2024-09	2024-12	8,870	6,550	-26.2%	-42.4%	-33.0%	-9.4%	❌
25	2025-04	2025-05	6,870	7,860	+14.4%	+1.1%	+15.0%	-14.0%	✅
26	2025-06	2025-07	11,560	11,530	-0.3%	+4.9%	+31.9%	-27.0%	❌
27	2026-01	2026-05	19,150	32,850	+71.5%	+3.0%	+96.7%	-93.8%	✅

candidate1 대시보드 / 📦 Nepes Signal

📦 Nepes (033640) — Two Strategy Families

📊 Q4 Strategy 백테스트 (12-year)

📈 Nepes 주가 + Flash YoY + F4 LONG region

📊 Spread Strategy 백테스트 (12-year)

📈 Nepes 3M return vs NAND imp/exp 3M change

🏆 Strategy Comparison (Q4 vs Spread)

💡 핵심 인사이트

Family	Best Rule	NAV	α/yr	MDD	n	Win	OOS
🎯 Q4 (cycle trough)	F4: Flash 12M hold	15.22x	+13.80%p	-57%	4	75%	OK
📐 Spread (mean reversion)	S3: 3M hold (NAND exp)	6.50x	+5.20%p	-81%	14	57%	약함