λ§μ§λ§ μ
λ°μ΄νΈ: 2026-05-08 14:02
π― Combo Signal β 5 Factor 1M Rising Rule (Hysteresis)
맀맀 룰:
1. κ° factorλ§λ€ yoy[t-1] < yoy[t] (1κ°μ μ λ³΄λ€ yoy λμ β κ°μ) β μ νΈ ON
2. 5κ° μ νΈ ν©μ° score = 0~5
3. score 4~5 β BUY (LONG), score 1~2 β SELL (CASH), score 3 β HOLD (μ§μ μν μ μ§)
Hysteresis ν¨κ³Ό: score 3 νμμ§λ(20%)μμ churn λ°©μ§ β ν λ² BUY/SELL μ§μ
ν λ°λ μκ³μ κΉμ§ holding.
5κ° factor μ ν μ΄μ : SK Hynix μ¬μ΄ν΄μ μλ‘ λ€λ₯Έ λ¨κ³ μΆμ , κ°κ° specialty + semiconductor-specific.
π₯
Gold Wire
π΄ OFF
yoy: +80.9%
1M μ : +68.7%
μ°¨μ΄: +12.2pp
HS 7108131010
HBM ν¨ν€μ§ νΉν
μμΈ βπ‘
Detector
π΄ OFF
yoy: +50.2%
1M μ : +60.5%
μ°¨μ΄: -10.3pp
HS 8543709020
fab κ²μ¬μ₯λΉ (specialty)
μμΈ βπ¬
Inspection
π΄ OFF
yoy: +143.3%
1M μ : +142.4%
μ°¨μ΄: +0.9pp
HS 9030901000
semi κ²μ¬ λΆν
μμΈ ββοΈ
Deposition
π΄ OFF
yoy: +2.1%
1M μ : -2.1%
μ°¨μ΄: +4.2pp
HS 8486204000
fab capex μ§μ
μμΈ βπ¦
NAND chip
π’ ON
yoy: +156.9%
1M μ : +158.5%
μ°¨μ΄: -1.6pp
HS 8542321030
end product cycle
μμΈ β
νμ¬ μμ : 2026-03
1/5
π΄ CASH (SELL)
5κ° μ€ 1/5 ON β Score 1~2 = SELL β CASH
SK Hynix μ’
κ°: 807,000 KRW | sk_3m: +24.0%
Score λ³ν: β 1M Ξ -3.0 | 3M Ξ -4.0 | μ§μ : 4/5 β νμ¬: 1/5
보쑰μ νΈ: β 보쑰μ νΈ μμ
π 보쑰 μ νΈ (μ°Έκ³ μ© β main rule λ³λ):
- π’ BUY possible:
sk_3m < β10% (3κ°μ κ°κ²© β10% μ΄μ νλ½ β κΉμ μ‘°μ zone). μμ¬μ trough 6/6 λͺ¨λ λ§μ‘±.
- π΄ SELL possible:
sk_3m > +30% (3κ°μ κ°κ²© +30% μ΄μ μμΉ β κ³Όμ΄ zone). μμ¬μ peak 9κ° μ€ 6κ° λ§μ‘±.
- μ£Όμ: λ¨λ
맀맀 μ νΈλ‘ λ°±ν
μ€νΈ NAV 0.4xλ‘ μμ€. main rule (combo hysteresis) 보쑰μ©μΌλ‘λ§.
π λ°±ν
μ€νΈ κ²°κ³Ό (2014-02 ~ 2026-03, 12.2λ
)
28.2%
νκ· μμ΅λ₯ /κ±°λ
π NAV β Combo vs Buy & Hold
π Score μκ³μ΄ + SK Hynix μ’
κ° (log)
λ
Ήμ μμ = score (0~5, μ°μΈ‘). κ²μ = SK μ’
κ° (μ’μΈ‘ log). Score 3+ κ΅¬κ° = BUY zone.
π Factor Sum vs SK Hynix Price β νλλ©ν vs κ°κ²©
π μ£Όν©μ = 5 factor yoy ν© (Ξ£ gold + det + insp + depo + nand) β νλλ©ν μ’
ν© μ§ν
β« κ²μ μ = SK Hynix μ’
κ° (log) β κ°κ²©
νμ μμ = spread (sk_3m β factor_sum). μμμΌ λ = νλκ° κ°κ²©μ leading β BUY zone
맀맀 λ£° (alternative signal): spread < 0 β BUY, > 0 β SELL. λ°±ν
μ€νΈ NAV 30.40x (BH 42.68x), μΉλ₯ 80%, νκ· +64.8%/κ±°λ.
π 맀맀 μ΄λ ₯ (n=14)
| μ§μ
| SK 맀μ | score@맀μ | μ²μ° | SK 맀λ | score@맀λ | 보μ | μμ΅λ₯ |
|---|
| 2014-09 | 46,750 | 4/5 | 2014-12 | 47,750 | 2/5 | 3M | +2.1% |
| 2016-05 | 28,700 | 5/5 | 2016-09 | 40,200 | 2/5 | 4M | +40.1% |
| 2016-10 | 41,000 | 5/5 | 2017-04 | 54,000 | 2/5 | 6M | +31.7% |
| 2019-01 | 73,900 | 4/5 | 2019-02 | 70,000 | 1/5 | 1M | -5.3% |
| 2019-06 | 69,500 | 4/5 | 2019-11 | 80,900 | 1/5 | 5M | +16.4% |
| 2020-04 | 83,700 | 4/5 | 2020-05 | 81,500 | 2/5 | 1M | -2.6% |
| 2020-10 | 79,900 | 4/5 | 2021-02 | 141,500 | 1/5 | 4M | +77.1% |
| 2022-07 | 97,900 | 5/5 | 2022-09 | 83,100 | 2/5 | 2M | -15.1% |
| 2023-03 | 88,600 | 5/5 | 2023-06 | 115,200 | 2/5 | 3M | +30.0% |
| 2023-11 | 133,900 | 4/5 | 2023-12 | 141,500 | 2/5 | 1M | +5.7% |
| 2024-03 | 183,000 | 4/5 | 2024-05 | 189,200 | 2/5 | 2M | +3.4% |
| 2024-10 | 186,300 | 4/5 | 2024-11 | 159,900 | 1/5 | 1M | -14.2% |
| 2025-05 | 204,500 | 4/5 | 2025-10 | 559,000 | 2/5 | 5M | +173.3% |
| 2025-11 | 530,000 | 4/5 | 2026-03 | 807,000 | 1/5 | 4M | +52.3% |
π μ΅κ·Ό 24κ°μ μ νΈ detail
| μ |
π₯ Gold | π‘ Det | π¬ Insp | βοΈ Depo | π¦ NAND |
Score | 1M Π| 3M Π| Action | SK Close | sk_3m | 보쑰 |
| 2024-04 | π΄ -5.6% | π’ +57.7% | π’ +36.9% | π’ -19.0% | π’ +58.9% | 4/5 | 0 | +2 | π’ BUY | 174,200 | +29.3% | β |
| 2024-05 | π΄ -4.4% | π’ +75.6% | π΄ +22.4% | π΄ -39.5% | π’ +31.3% | 2/5 | -2 | -1 | π΄ SELL | 189,200 | +21.1% | β |
| 2024-06 | π’ -5.3% | π’ +47.0% | π΄ +32.8% | π΄ -47.2% | π΄ -9.3% | 2/5 | 0 | -2 | π΄ SELL | 236,500 | +29.2% | β |
| 2024-07 | π΄ -3.4% | π΄ +28.8% | π’ +49.0% | π΄ -38.4% | π΄ -50.6% | 1/5 | -1 | -3 | π΄ SELL | 194,600 | +11.7% | β |
| 2024-08 | π’ -0.5% | π΄ +27.9% | π’ +47.3% | π’ -16.5% | π΄ -29.4% | 3/5 | +2 | +1 | π΄ SELL | 173,700 | -8.2% | β |
| 2024-09 | π’ +2.7% | π΄ +49.7% | π΄ +42.5% | π’ +33.4% | π’ -23.3% | 3/5 | 0 | +1 | π΄ SELL | 174,600 | -26.2% | π’ BUY κ°λ₯ |
| 2024-10 | π’ +0.5% | π’ +32.5% | π΄ +40.6% | π’ +39.4% | π’ -29.0% | 4/5 | +1 | +3 | π’ BUY | 186,300 | -4.3% | β |
| 2024-11 | π΄ +7.4% | π΄ +3.7% | π΄ +68.3% | π’ +45.7% | π΄ -44.9% | 1/5 | -3 | -2 | π΄ SELL | 159,900 | -7.9% | β |
| 2024-12 | π’ +16.9% | π΄ +1.4% | π’ +61.8% | π’ +9.6% | π΄ -53.4% | 3/5 | +2 | 0 | π΄ SELL | 173,900 | -0.4% | β |
| 2025-01 | π’ +4.7% | π΄ +0.8% | π΄ +38.3% | π΄ +2.9% | π΄ -53.9% | 1/5 | -2 | -3 | π΄ SELL | 199,200 | +6.9% | β |
| 2025-02 | π΄ +22.1% | π΄ +2.1% | π΄ +4.2% | π΄ +4.6% | π΄ -66.1% | 0/5 | -1 | -1 | π΄ SELL | 190,200 | +18.9% | β |
| 2025-03 | π’ +20.3% | π’ -17.4% | π΄ -2.0% | π’ +6.0% | π΄ -69.0% | 3/5 | +3 | 0 | π΄ SELL | 190,700 | +9.7% | β |
| 2025-04 | π΄ +37.3% | π΄ -9.5% | π΄ +7.8% | π’ +11.1% | π΄ -69.7% | 1/5 | -2 | 0 | π΄ SELL | 177,500 | -10.9% | π’ BUY κ°λ₯ |
| 2025-05 | π’ +32.3% | π’ +5.6% | π’ +9.8% | π’ +28.9% | π΄ -59.4% | 4/5 | +3 | +4 | π’ BUY | 204,500 | +7.5% | β |
| 2025-06 | π΄ +41.2% | π’ +15.8% | π’ +39.8% | π’ +41.4% | π’ -45.0% | 4/5 | 0 | +1 | π’ BUY | 292,000 | +53.1% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2025-07 | π’ +52.8% | π’ +38.0% | π’ +32.4% | π’ +30.6% | π’ -25.9% | 5/5 | +1 | +4 | π’ BUY | 273,500 | +54.1% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2025-08 | π’ +58.4% | π’ +36.1% | π΄ +34.9% | π΄ -0.3% | π’ -18.3% | 3/5 | -2 | -1 | π’ BUY | 269,000 | +31.5% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2025-09 | π’ +68.1% | π΄ +29.1% | π’ +27.0% | π΄ -8.1% | π’ -10.2% | 3/5 | 0 | -1 | π’ BUY | 347,500 | +19.0% | β |
| 2025-10 | π’ +66.7% | π΄ +71.2% | π΄ +53.9% | π΄ -1.5% | π’ +9.8% | 2/5 | -1 | -3 | π΄ SELL | 559,000 | +104.4% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2025-11 | π΄ +67.4% | π’ +108.7% | π’ +97.7% | π’ -0.6% | π’ +37.4% | 4/5 | +2 | +1 | π’ BUY | 530,000 | +97.0% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2025-12 | π’ +69.1% | π’ +126.0% | π’ +132.8% | π’ -4.6% | π’ +102.5% | 5/5 | +1 | +2 | π’ BUY | 651,000 | +87.3% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2026-01 | π’ +74.9% | π’ +89.0% | π’ +175.6% | π΄ +8.4% | π’ +139.5% | 4/5 | -1 | +2 | π’ BUY | 909,000 | +62.6% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2026-02 | π’ +68.7% | π΄ +60.5% | π’ +142.4% | π’ -2.1% | π’ +158.5% | 4/5 | 0 | 0 | π’ BUY | 1,061,000 | +100.2% | π΄ SELL κ°λ₯ |
| 2026-03 | π΄ +80.9% | π΄ +50.2% | π΄ +143.3% | π΄ +2.1% | π’ +156.9% | 1/5 | -3 | -4 | π΄ SELL | 807,000 | +24.0% | β |
π 맀맀 λ£° μμ½ (Hysteresis):
- BUY (LONG) μ§μ
: score 4~5 (5κ° μ€ 4κ° μ΄μ κ°μ) β κ°ν νμ μ νΈ
- SELL (CASH) μ²μ°: score 1~2 (5κ° μ€ 1~2κ°λ§ κ°μ) β λͺ
ν μ½μΈ
- HOLD (μ§μ μ μ§): score 3 (νμμ§λ) β μ§μ
/μ²μ° λͺ¨λ 보λ₯
- μ΄μ© λΉλ: 14ν / 12.2λ
= μ° 1.2ν
νμ¬ (2026-03) β Score 1/5: π΄ CASH (SELL)
- π₯ Gold: π΄ OFF
- π‘ Detector: π΄ OFF
- π¬ Inspection: π΄ OFF
- βοΈ Deposition: π΄ OFF
- π¦ NAND: π’ ON
π± Samsung Electronics β λμΌ λ£° cross-stock test
κ°μ 5 factor combo signal (1M rising, 4-5 BUY / 1-2 SELL / 3 HOLD)μ μΌμ±μ μ (005930)μ μ μ©ν κ²°κ³Ό.
SK Hynix μ¬μ΄ν΄ μ νΈκ° λ©λͺ¨λ¦¬ λ°λ체 λ€λ₯Έ μ’
λͺ©μλ alpha λ°μνλμ§ cross-validation.
19.2%
νκ· μμ΅λ₯ /κ±°λ
π Samsung NAV β Combo vs Buy & Hold
π Samsung μ’
κ° + Score μκ³μ΄
π Samsung 맀맀 μ΄λ ₯ (n=14)
| μ§μ
| SS 맀μ | score@맀μ | μ²μ° | SS 맀λ | score@맀λ | 보μ | μμ΅λ₯ |
|---|
| 2014-09 | 23,680 | 4/5 | 2014-12 | 26,540 | 2/5 | 3M | +12.1% |
| 2016-05 | 25,840 | 5/5 | 2016-09 | 31,960 | 2/5 | 4M | +23.7% |
| 2016-10 | 32,780 | 5/5 | 2017-04 | 44,620 | 2/5 | 6M | +36.1% |
| 2019-01 | 46,150 | 4/5 | 2019-02 | 45,100 | 1/5 | 1M | -2.3% |
| 2019-06 | 47,000 | 4/5 | 2019-11 | 50,300 | 1/5 | 5M | +7.0% |
| 2020-04 | 50,000 | 4/5 | 2020-05 | 50,700 | 2/5 | 1M | +1.4% |
| 2020-10 | 56,600 | 4/5 | 2021-02 | 82,500 | 1/5 | 4M | +45.8% |
| 2022-07 | 61,400 | 5/5 | 2022-09 | 53,100 | 2/5 | 2M | -13.5% |
| 2023-03 | 64,000 | 5/5 | 2023-06 | 72,200 | 2/5 | 3M | +12.8% |
| 2023-11 | 72,800 | 4/5 | 2023-12 | 78,500 | 2/5 | 1M | +7.8% |
| 2024-03 | 82,400 | 4/5 | 2024-05 | 73,500 | 2/5 | 2M | -10.8% |
| 2024-10 | 59,200 | 4/5 | 2024-11 | 54,200 | 1/5 | 1M | -8.4% |
| 2025-05 | 56,200 | 4/5 | 2025-10 | 107,500 | 2/5 | 5M | +91.3% |
| 2025-11 | 100,500 | 4/5 | 2026-03 | 167,200 | 1/5 | 4M | +66.4% |
π Cross-stock κ²μ¦ κ²°κ³Ό:
- Samsung NAV 15.17x vs BH 6.20x β Alpha +8.9%p/λ
- νμ¬ (2026-03): Samsung μ’
κ° 167,200 KRW / λμΌ μ νΈ β π΄ CASH (SELL)
- SK Hynixμ κ°μ μ νΈλ‘ Samsungλ μ΄μ© κ°λ₯ β λ©λͺ¨λ¦¬ cycle factorκ° μ’
λͺ© κ° transferable
π§ Hanmi Semiconductor (042700) β HBM ν¨ν€μ§ globally #1
νλ―Έλ°λ체 (1980 μ€λ¦½) β AI/HBM μνΌμ¬μ΄ν΄μ picks-and-shovels.
μ£Όλ ₯ μ ν:
- π₯ HBM TC Bonder: 12λ¨/16λ¨ HBM κ³ μ μΈ΅ ν΅μ¬ μ₯λΉ (κΈλ‘λ² #1)
- WIDE TC Bonder: 20+λ¨ HBM μ°¨μΈλ β μΆμ μμ
- 6-SIDE INSPECTION: HBM die 6λ©΄ κ²μ¬, μμ¨ κ΄λ¦¬
- BOC COB Bonder: μΈκ³ μ΅μ΄ 2-in-1 λ³Έλ© μ₯λΉ
- AI 2.5D ν¨ν€μ§: TC/FC/Die bonder, μΈν°ν¬μ + Core HBM + CPU/GPU ν΅ν©
- MSVP: SAW + Vision Placement (μμ₯μ μ μ¨ #1, 2000s μ€λ°λΆν°)
- EMI Shield: μ μν μ°¨ν #1 (2016~)
2025 맀μΆ: 5,766μ΅μ (λ°λ체 μ₯λΉ 84.6% / Conversion Kit 15.4%)
κ³ κ°: κΈλ‘λ² μ£Όμ AI λ°λ체 κΈ°μ
(SK Hynix HBMμ ν΅μ¬ vendor) β gold wire μ νΈμ μ§μ μ°κ΄.
BH κ²°κ³Ό: 12.3λ
BH NAV
108x (HBM μνΌμ¬μ΄ν΄λ‘ μΈν νλ°μ μ±μ₯)
24.2%
νκ· μμ΅λ₯ /κ±°λ
π Hanmi NAV β Combo vs Buy & Hold
π Hanmi μ’
κ° + Score μκ³μ΄
π Factor Sum vs Hanmi Price β Hanmi-native spread (BUY/SELL λ§μ»€)
π μ£Όν©μ = SK Hynix 5 factor yoy ν© (νλλ©ν)
β« κ²μ μ = Hanmi μ’
κ° (log)
π’ λ
Ήμ μΌκ° = BUY (spread < 0 μ§μ
), π΄ λΉ¨κ° λ§λ¦λͺ¨ = SELL (spread β₯ 0 μ²μ°)
νμ μμ = spread (hanmi_3m β factor_sum). Hanmi μ체 κ°κ²© momentumμ΄ νλ λλΉ μ½ν λ BUY.
맀맀 λ£° λ°±ν
μ€νΈ: NAV 64.38x (BH 108.2x).
π Hanmi 맀맀 μ΄λ ₯ (n=14)
| # | μ§μ
| HM 맀μ | score@맀μ | μ²μ° | HM 맀λ | score@맀λ | 보μ | μμ΅λ₯ |
|---|
| 1 | 2014-09 | 3,310 | 4/5 | 2014-12 | 3,240 | 2/5 | 3M | -2.1% |
| 2 | 2016-05 | 3,050 | 5/5 | 2016-09 | 2,770 | 2/5 | 4M | -9.2% |
| 3 | 2016-10 | 2,770 | 5/5 | 2017-04 | 3,740 | 2/5 | 6M | +35.0% |
| 4 | 2019-01 | 3,990 | 4/5 | 2019-02 | 4,140 | 1/5 | 1M | +3.8% |
| 5 | 2019-06 | 3,780 | 4/5 | 2019-11 | 3,120 | 1/5 | 5M | -17.5% |
| 6 | 2020-04 | 3,915 | 4/5 | 2020-05 | 4,615 | 2/5 | 1M | +17.9% |
| 7 | 2020-10 | 5,425 | 4/5 | 2021-02 | 11,075 | 1/5 | 4M | +104.1% |
| 8 | 2022-07 | 13,500 | 5/5 | 2022-09 | 10,800 | 2/5 | 2M | -20.0% |
| 9 | 2023-03 | 20,700 | 5/5 | 2023-06 | 30,150 | 2/5 | 3M | +45.7% |
| 10 | 2023-11 | 63,600 | 4/5 | 2023-12 | 61,700 | 2/5 | 1M | -3.0% |
| 11 | 2024-03 | 133,700 | 4/5 | 2024-05 | 161,700 | 2/5 | 2M | +20.9% |
| 12 | 2024-10 | 92,000 | 4/5 | 2024-11 | 74,600 | 1/5 | 1M | -18.9% |
| 13 | 2025-05 | 80,400 | 4/5 | 2025-10 | 143,700 | 2/5 | 5M | +78.7% |
| 14 | 2025-11 | 123,600 | 4/5 | 2026-03 | 251,000 | 1/5 | 4M | +103.1% |
| ν©κ³ (14ν): μΉ 8 / ν¨ 6, νκ· 24.2%, μ€μκ° 10.8%, max 104.1%, min -20.0% |
16.96x NAV |
π SK Hynix vs Samsung vs Hanmi β λμΌ combo λ£°:
| Stock | μ λ΅ NAV | BH NAV | Alpha (CAGR) | MDD (μ λ΅ / BH) | Trades | Win% |
|---|
| SK Hynix (000660) | 25.03x | 20.83x | +2.0%p | -13% / -47% | 14 | 71% |
| Samsung (005930) | 15.17x | 6.20x | +8.9%p | -9% / -38% | 14 | 71% |
| Hanmi (042700) | 16.96x | 108.2x | -20.8%p | -24% / -60% | 14 | 57% |