🚦 반도체 시그널 v3 (Leading)

🚦 반도체 시그널 v3 — Leading Indicators Only

v2 → v3 변경: v2의 9개 중 6개 (DRAM/NAND/장비/웨이퍼/구리)는 SK Hynix를 1-6개월 LAG하는 후행 지표 (DRAM main: SK가 3M 먼저 움직임). v3은 두 종류로 재구성:

🔮 8 LEADING (lag +1~+5M, ρ 0.55~0.76) — 가중평균 lead time 2.6개월. 금 인풋 (HBM wire bonding) + 광학/스위치 (fab 전기 부품)
⏱️ 6 COINCIDENT (lag -1~0M, ρ 0.50~0.73) — 동시 움직임으로 현재 사이클 위치 확인. PCB / 검사기기 / 정련구리 와이어

v3 score 로직: 방향(chg) 우선. 레벨은 trough(-50↓)에서만 BUY 가산. 높은 레벨이 자동 SELL 의미 X (DRAM 분석에서 +100% YoY가 peak 아님 확인).

📋 14개 지표 (8 LEAD + 6 COINCIDENT)

그룹	HS10	품목	방향	ρ vs SK	Lag	최근 yoy
🔮 LEADING (lag +1~+5M, SK 가격을 앞서감)
L	8541402090	광다이오드 main	exp	+0.76	+1M	—
L	8538904000	스위치/제어반 부품	imp	+0.71	+3M	—
L	8536691000	플러그/소켓 1000V↓	exp	+0.64	+2M	-0.5%
L	7108131010	금 반제품 export	exp	+0.62	+3M	+80.9%
L	7108139010	금 반제품 import sub	imp	+0.61	+1M	+41.7%
L	8541409030	다이오드 import	imp	+0.59	+5M	—
L	9001909000	광학기기 부분품	exp	+0.56	+5M	-14.1%
L	3919900000	자기점착성 플라스틱	exp	+0.55	+1M	-13.3%
⏱️ COINCIDENT (lag -1~0M, SK와 동시 움직임)
C	8543709020	기타 전기기기	imp	+0.73	+0M	+50.2%
C	7408110000	정련구리 와이어	exp	+0.68	+0M	+27.8%
C	7108129000	금 반제품 main imp	imp	+0.62	-1M	+51.0%
C	9013801930	광학기기/LCD 부분품	exp	+0.60	-1M	—
C	9030901000	측정/검사기기 부분품	imp	+0.56	-1M	+75.3%
C	8534009000	인쇄회로 PCB	exp	+0.50	-1M	+27.7%

그룹

HS10

품목

방향

ρ vs SK

Lag

최근 yoy

🔮 LEADING (lag +1~+5M, SK 가격을 앞서감)

8541402090

광다이오드 main

exp

+0.76

+1M

—

8538904000

스위치/제어반 부품

imp

+0.71

+3M

—

8536691000

플러그/소켓 1000V↓

exp

+0.64

+2M

-0.5%

7108131010

금 반제품 export

exp

+0.62

+3M

+80.9%

7108139010

금 반제품 import sub

imp

+0.61

+1M

+41.7%

8541409030

다이오드 import

imp

+0.59

+5M

—

9001909000

광학기기 부분품

exp

+0.56

+5M

-14.1%

3919900000

자기점착성 플라스틱

exp

+0.55

+1M

-13.3%

⏱️ COINCIDENT (lag -1~0M, SK와 동시 움직임)

8543709020

기타 전기기기

imp

+0.73

+0M

+50.2%

7408110000

정련구리 와이어

exp

+0.68

+0M

+27.8%

7108129000

금 반제품 main imp

imp

+0.62

-1M

+51.0%

9013801930

광학기기/LCD 부분품

exp

+0.60

-1M

—

9030901000

측정/검사기기 부분품

imp

+0.56

-1M

+75.3%

8534009000

인쇄회로 PCB

exp

+0.50

-1M

+27.7%

현재 시점: 2026-03

🟡 HOLD

LEAD composite: +32.8% (-7.3pp/3M) | COIN composite: +65.7% | Score: -1.0

중립 — 추세 확인 대기

Score는 LEAD composite 기반 → SK Hynix를 ~2.6개월 앞섭니다.

+5↑ STRONG BUY +2~+5 BUY −1~+2 HOLD −4~−1 WARNING −5↓ STRONG SELL

📈 LEAD vs COINCIDENT Composite vs SK Hynix YoY

모두 YoY% 단위 (단일 축). 파란 = LEADING (2.6M 앞서감), 주황 = COINCIDENT (동행), 빨간 점선 = SK Hynix 12M 수익률.
읽는 법: 파랑이 먼저 turn → 주황 → SK YoY가 따라옴. 셋이 같은 방향이면 추세 강함, 발산하면 변곡점 가능성.

📈 Signal Score 시계열 (with SK Hynix 종가)

Score = LEADING composite의 방향(chg) + 깊은 trough 보너스. Score 변곡점이 SK 변곡점보다 ~2.6개월 앞서야 함.

📋 과거 극단 시그널 이벤트 (cluster collapsed)

이후 6M/12M 수익률이 매매 룰의 backtest. STRONG BUY 후 양(+) → 신호 유효, STRONG SELL 후 음(-) → 신호 유효.

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유형

발생 월

Score

Composite YoY

SK 종가

이후 6M

이후 12M

📋 최근 30개월 — LEAD + COIN composites

월	LEAD YoY	LEAD 3M chg	COIN YoY	SK 종가	Score	Signal
2023-10	+17.1%	+27.3pp	-3.0%	+116300.0	+5.0	🟢 STRONG BUY
2023-11	+27.2%	+28.9pp	+8.5%	+133900.0	+5.0	🟢 STRONG BUY
2023-12	+31.2%	+19.7pp	+16.2%	+141500.0	+4.0	🟢 BUY
2024-01	+37.2%	+20.1pp	+24.7%	+134700.0	+4.0	🟢 BUY
2024-02	+39.4%	+12.2pp	+30.9%	+156200.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2024-03	+41.9%	+10.7pp	+44.4%	+183000.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2024-04	+43.6%	+6.3pp	+51.1%	+174200.0	+1.0	🟡 HOLD
2024-05	+44.3%	+4.9pp	+58.0%	+189200.0	+1.0	🟡 HOLD
2024-06	+39.1%	-2.8pp	+54.1%	+236500.0	+0.0	🟡 HOLD
2024-07	+27.4%	-16.2pp	+50.6%	+194600.0	-4.0	⚠️ WARNING
2024-08	+14.5%	-29.8pp	+44.8%	+173700.0	-5.0	🔴 STRONG SELL
2024-09	+10.7%	-28.4pp	+44.1%	+174600.0	-5.0	🔴 STRONG SELL
2024-10	+14.3%	-13.1pp	+39.6%	+186300.0	-3.0	⚠️ WARNING
2024-11	+19.0%	+4.5pp	+34.3%	+159900.0	+1.0	🟡 HOLD
2024-12	+19.1%	+8.4pp	+27.6%	+173900.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2025-01	+17.8%	+3.5pp	+21.5%	+199200.0	+1.0	🟡 HOLD
2025-02	+20.0%	+1.1pp	+18.1%	+190200.0	+0.0	🟡 HOLD
2025-03	+26.5%	+7.4pp	+15.2%	+190700.0	+1.0	🟡 HOLD
2025-04	+31.1%	+13.3pp	+19.0%	+177500.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2025-05	+27.9%	+7.8pp	+20.6%	+204500.0	+1.0	🟡 HOLD
2025-06	+21.9%	-4.6pp	+21.3%	+292000.0	-1.0	🟡 HOLD
2025-07	+21.9%	-9.2pp	+20.1%	+273500.0	-3.0	⚠️ WARNING
2025-08	+26.1%	-1.8pp	+19.3%	+269000.0	+0.0	🟡 HOLD
2025-09	+31.8%	+9.9pp	+22.7%	+347500.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2025-10	+32.5%	+10.6pp	+32.8%	+559000.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2025-11	+37.9%	+11.9pp	+53.5%	+530000.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2025-12	+40.1%	+8.3pp	+72.5%	+651000.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2026-01	+44.2%	+11.6pp	+83.2%	+909000.0	+3.0	🟢 BUY
2026-02	+40.1%	+2.1pp	+78.9%	+1061000.0	+0.0	🟡 HOLD
2026-03	+32.8%	-7.3pp	+65.7%	+807000.0	-1.0	🟡 HOLD

월

LEAD YoY

LEAD 3M chg

COIN YoY

SK 종가

Score

Signal

2023-10

+17.1%

+27.3pp

-3.0%

+116300.0

+5.0

🟢 STRONG BUY

2023-11

+27.2%

+28.9pp

+8.5%

+133900.0

+5.0

🟢 STRONG BUY

2023-12

+31.2%

+19.7pp

+16.2%

+141500.0

+4.0

🟢 BUY

2024-01

+37.2%

+20.1pp

+24.7%

+134700.0

+4.0

🟢 BUY

2024-02

+39.4%

+12.2pp

+30.9%

+156200.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2024-03

+41.9%

+10.7pp

+44.4%

+183000.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2024-04

+43.6%

+6.3pp

+51.1%

+174200.0

+1.0

🟡 HOLD

2024-05

+44.3%

+4.9pp

+58.0%

+189200.0

+1.0

🟡 HOLD

2024-06

+39.1%

-2.8pp

+54.1%

+236500.0

+0.0

🟡 HOLD

2024-07

+27.4%

-16.2pp

+50.6%

+194600.0

-4.0

⚠️ WARNING

2024-08

+14.5%

-29.8pp

+44.8%

+173700.0

-5.0

🔴 STRONG SELL

2024-09

+10.7%

-28.4pp

+44.1%

+174600.0

-5.0

🔴 STRONG SELL

2024-10

+14.3%

-13.1pp

+39.6%

+186300.0

-3.0

⚠️ WARNING

2024-11

+19.0%

+4.5pp

+34.3%

+159900.0

+1.0

🟡 HOLD

2024-12

+19.1%

+8.4pp

+27.6%

+173900.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2025-01

+17.8%

+3.5pp

+21.5%

+199200.0

+1.0

🟡 HOLD

2025-02

+20.0%

+1.1pp

+18.1%

+190200.0

+0.0

🟡 HOLD

2025-03

+26.5%

+7.4pp

+15.2%

+190700.0

+1.0

🟡 HOLD

2025-04

+31.1%

+13.3pp

+19.0%

+177500.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2025-05

+27.9%

+7.8pp

+20.6%

+204500.0

+1.0

🟡 HOLD

2025-06

+21.9%

-4.6pp

+21.3%

+292000.0

-1.0

🟡 HOLD

2025-07

+21.9%

-9.2pp

+20.1%

+273500.0

-3.0

⚠️ WARNING

2025-08

+26.1%

-1.8pp

+19.3%

+269000.0

+0.0

🟡 HOLD

2025-09

+31.8%

+9.9pp

+22.7%

+347500.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2025-10

+32.5%

+10.6pp

+32.8%

+559000.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2025-11

+37.9%

+11.9pp

+53.5%

+530000.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2025-12

+40.1%

+8.3pp

+72.5%

+651000.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2026-01

+44.2%

+11.6pp

+83.2%

+909000.0

+3.0

🟢 BUY

2026-02

+40.1%

+2.1pp

+78.9%

+1061000.0

+0.0

🟡 HOLD

2026-03

+32.8%

-7.3pp

+65.7%

+807000.0

-1.0

🟡 HOLD

📌 v3 매매 룰:

STRONG BUY (Score ≥ +5): composite 급가속 (+20pp/3M↑) 또는 깊은 trough (composite < -50). 100% 비중
BUY (+2~+5): composite 회복 진행. 50-80% 비중
HOLD (−1~+2): 방향 중립. 기존 유지
WARNING (−4~−1): composite 둔화 (chg < -3pp). 50% 비중 축소
STRONG SELL (≤ −5): composite 급감속 (chg < -20pp/3M). 청산

차이점 vs v2: 레벨이 높다고 자동 SELL 처리하지 않음. 방향이 음(-)으로 꺾일 때만 SELL.

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